Authors:
Christina Pakusch
;
Paul Bossauer
;
Markus Shakoor
and
Gunnar Stevens
Affiliation:
Bonn-Rhein-Sieg University, Germany
Keyword(s):
Megatrends, Foresight, Scenario, Trend Analysis, Shareconomy, Ownership, Usership, Digitalization, Self Driving Cars, Mobility as a Service.
Related
Ontology
Subjects/Areas/Topics:
Business Models
;
Collaboration and e-Services
;
e-Business
;
Enterprise Engineering
;
Enterprise Information Systems
;
Ubiquity
Abstract:
The megatrends towards both a digital and a usership economy have changed entire markets in the past and will continue to do so over the next decades. In this work, we outline what this change means for possible futures of the mobility sector, taking the combination of trends in both economies into account. Using a sys-tematic, scenario-based trend analysis, we draft four general future scenarios and adapt the two most relevant scenarios to the automotive sector. Our findings show that combing the trends from both economies provides new insights that have often been neglected in literature because of an isolated view on digital technology only. However, service concepts such as self-driving car sharing or self-driving taxis have a great impact at various levels including microeconomic (e.g., service and product design, business models) and macroeconomic (e.g., with regard to ecological, economical, and social impacts). We give a brief outline of these issues and show which business m
odels could be successful in the most likely future scenarios, before we frame strategic implications for today’s automobile manufacturers.
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