Authors:
Marta Gallardo
1
and
Javier Martinez-Vega
2
Affiliations:
1
University of Murcia, Spain
;
2
Spanish National Research Council, Spain
Keyword(s):
Land Use Changes, Land Use Scenarios, Natural Protected Areas, Region of Madrid, Spain.
Abstract:
Natural protected areas are declared to safeguard their environment, goods and services. However, sometimes they are affected by land use changes related to human activity, which affects their ecosystem functions and their sustainability. Problems such as fragmentation or low habitat connectivity are some of its consequences. Developing future land use scenarios is essential if a preventive approach to the management of protected areas is to be adopted. In this paper, three different land use change scenarios in natural protected areas in Madrid region are modelled: a “business as usual” scenario, an economic crisis scenario and a green scenario. All protected areas are studied, from National and Nature Parks to Special Areas of Conservation and Special Protection Areas; changes in a buffer area of 5 km around PAs are also studied. The CLUE model (based on logistic regression) is used. Biophysical, socio-economic and accessibility factors and incentives and restrictions are considere
d. In recent decades, the region of Madrid has experienced intense urban and infrastructure development (48,332 ha). Protected areas have been affected by this urbanization process (almost 5,000 ha) and its surroundings (30,000 ha). These findings should alert land use planners and the managers of protected areas to the potential threats.
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