Authors:
Anthony E. Kiszewski
1
;
Marcia Castro
2
and
Sarah McGough
2
Affiliations:
1
Natural and Applied Sciences, Bentley University, 175 Forest Street, Waltham, MA and U.S.A.
;
2
Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA and U.S.A.
Keyword(s):
Malaria, Mosquito, Cellular Automata, Coupled Map Lattice, Spatially Explicit, Individual-based.
Related
Ontology
Subjects/Areas/Topics:
Agent Based Modeling and Simulation
;
Complex Systems Modeling and Simulation
;
Computer Simulation Techniques
;
Discrete-Event Simulation
;
Environmental Modeling
;
Formal Methods
;
Mathematical Simulation
;
Sensor Networks
;
Simulation and Modeling
;
Simulation Tools and Platforms
;
Software and Architectures
;
Stochastic Modeling and Simulation
;
Virtual Reality and Graphical Simulations
Abstract:
End stage malaria elimination efforts will require interventions against transmission that is sparse, cryptic and spotty, situations suited for explicitly spatial simulation. A simulation of mosquito population dynamics and Plasmodium vivax malaria transmission in the Brazilian Amazon is described combining techniques of cellular automata and coupled map lattices. Within a 200x200 grid, 64 dispersed communities of 50 households each are represented with larval breeding sites following a random Gaussian distribution. Discrete representation of individual humans allows examination of the effect of circulation and migration. Continuous representation of mosquito abundance allows for more realistic scaling over space. Simulations (n=100) reach equilibrium within 200 daily time steps. Adult mosquito populations range between 230-241,000 individuals. An average parous rate of 56.5% for stable mosquito populations is consistent with values reported in local field studies of the primary vect
or, Anopheles darlingi. Equilibrium prevalence of P. vivax infections averages 3% (1.8-3.9%) and is highly sensitive to treatment seeking behaviour of asymptomatics. This simulation provides a stable platform that may be useful for investigating the role of human migration and asymptomatic malaria in perpetuating transmission cycles in this region and interventions supporting malaria elimination efforts.
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