SCENARIO MANAGEMENT: PROCESS AND SUPPORT

M. Daud Ahmed, David Sundaram

Abstract

Scenario planning is a widely accepted management tool for decision support activities. Scenario planning, development, organisation, analysis, and evaluation are generally quite complex processes. Systems that purport to support these processes are complex and difficult to use and do not fully support all phases of scenario management. Though traditional Decision Support Systems (DSS) provide strong database, modelling and visualisation capabilities for the decision maker they do not explicitly support scenario management well. This paper presents an integrated life cycle approach for scenario driven flexible decision support. The proposed processes help the decision maker with idea generation, scenario planning, development, organisation, analysis, and execution. We also propose a generalised scenario evaluation process that allows homogeneous and heterogeneous scenario comparisons. This research develops a domain independent, component-based, modular framework and architecture that support the proposed scenario management process. The framework and architecture have been validated through a concrete prototype.

References

  1. Albert, K. J., (1983). “The Strategic Management Handbook”, McGraw-Hill.
  2. Alter, S.L, (1980). “Decision Support Systems: Current Practice and Continuing Challenge”, AddisonWesley.
  3. AMP (2001), 18 July. “AMP Banking Survey - New Zealand home affordability highest for two years”, Retrieved on 10 October 2001 from http://www.amp.co.nz.
  4. Chermack T. J., (2003). A Methodology for Assessing Performance-Based Scenario Planning,. Journal of Leadership & Organizational Studies 10 (2): pp. 55
  5. Chermack, T. J., (2002). The mandate for theory in scenario planning. Futures Research Quarterly, 18(2), 25-28.
  6. Collier, K., Carey, B., Sautter, D., and Marjaniemi C., (1999). “A Methodology for Evaluating and Selection Data Mining Software”, Proceedings of the 32nd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.
  7. De Geus, A., (1997). “The Living Company: Habits for Survival in a Turbulent Business Environment”, Harvard Business School Press.
  8. De Geus, A. (1988). Planning as learning. Harvard Business Review, 66 (2), 70-74.
  9. Epstein, J. H., (1998). “Scenario Planning: An Introduction”, Futurist, 32(6): 50-51.
  10. Geoffrion, A., (1987). An Introduction to Structured Modelling, Management Science, 33 (5) pp. 547.
  11. Godet, M., (2001). Creating futures: Scenario planning as a strategic management tool. London: Economica Publishing.
  12. Huss, W.R., and Honton, E. J., (1987). Scenario Planning: What Style Should You Use?, Long Range Planning, April.
  13. Kloss, L. L., (1999). “The Suitability and Application of Scenario Planning for National Professional Associations”, Nonprofit Management & Leadership, 10(1): 71-83.
  14. Nunamaker, J. F. Jr., Chen, M., and Purdin, T.D.M., (1991). “Systems Development in Information Systems Research”, Journal of Management Information Systems, 7(3), pp. 89 - 106.
  15. Porter, M., (1985). Competitive Advantage, New York, Free Press.
  16. Ringland, G., (1998). “Scenario Planning- Managing for the Future”, John Wiley & Sons.
  17. Ringland, G. 2002. Scenarios in business. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
  18. Ritson, N., (1997). “Scenario Planning in Action”, Management Accounting, London, 75(11): 24-28.
  19. Schoemaker, P. J H., 1995. “Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking”, Sloan Management Review, 36(2): 25-40.
  20. Schoemaker, P.J.H., (1993). “Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Behavioural Foundation”, Strategic Management Journal, 14(3): 193-213.
  21. Schwartz, P., (1991). “The Art of the Long View”, ISBN 0- 385-26731-2, Doubleday.
  22. Simon, H.A., (1960). “The New Science of Management Decision”, NY: Harper and Row, New York.
  23. Tucker, K., (1999). “Scenario Planning”, Association Management, 51(4): 70-75, April.
  24. van der Heijden, K., (1996). “Scenarios, The Art of Strategic Conversation”, Wiley.
  25. van der Heijden, K., Bradfield, R., Burt, G., Cairns, G., & Wright, G., (2002). The sixth seme: Accelerating organizational learning with scenarios. New York: John Wiley.
  26. Wack, P., (1985). “Scenarios, Uncharted Waters Ahead”, Harvard Business Review
  27. Wright, A. D., (2000). Scenario planning: A continuous improvement approach to strategy. Total Quality Management: 11 (4-6) pp. S433-438
Download


Paper Citation


in Harvard Style

Daud Ahmed M. and Sundaram D. (2005). SCENARIO MANAGEMENT: PROCESS AND SUPPORT . In Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems - Volume 2: ICEIS, ISBN 972-8865-19-8, pages 50-57. DOI: 10.5220/0002525600500057


in Bibtex Style

@conference{iceis05,
author={M. Daud Ahmed and David Sundaram},
title={SCENARIO MANAGEMENT: PROCESS AND SUPPORT},
booktitle={Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems - Volume 2: ICEIS,},
year={2005},
pages={50-57},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0002525600500057},
isbn={972-8865-19-8},
}


in EndNote Style

TY - CONF
JO - Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems - Volume 2: ICEIS,
TI - SCENARIO MANAGEMENT: PROCESS AND SUPPORT
SN - 972-8865-19-8
AU - Daud Ahmed M.
AU - Sundaram D.
PY - 2005
SP - 50
EP - 57
DO - 10.5220/0002525600500057