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Authors: Claus Aranha 1 ; Yuri Cossich Lavinas 2 ; Marcelo Ladeira 2 and Bogdan Enescu 1

Affiliations: 1 University of Tsukuba, Japan ; 2 University of Brasilia, Brazil

ISBN: 978-989-758-052-9

Keyword(s): Earthquakes, Forecast Model, Genetic Algorithm, Application.

Related Ontology Subjects/Areas/Topics: Artificial Intelligence ; Computational Intelligence ; Evolutionary Computing ; Genetic Algorithms ; Informatics in Control, Automation and Robotics ; Intelligent Control Systems and Optimization ; Knowledge Discovery and Information Retrieval ; Knowledge-Based Systems ; Machine Learning ; Soft Computing ; Symbolic Systems

Abstract: Understanding the mechanisms and patterns of earthquake occurrence is of crucial importance for assessing and mitigating the seismic risk. In this work we analyze the viability of using Evolutionary Computation (EC) as a means of generating models for the occurrence of earthquakes. Our proposal is made in the context of the "Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability" (CSEP), an international effort to standardize the study and testing of earthquake forecasting models. We use a standard Genetic Algorithm (GA) with real valued genome, where each allele corresponds to a bin in the forecast model. The design of an appropriate fitness function is the main challenge for this task, and we describe two different proposals based on the log-likelihood of the candidate model against the training data set. The resulting forecasts are compared with the Relative Intensity algorithm, which is traditionally employed by the CSEP community as a benchmark, using data from the Japan Meteor ological Agency (JMA) earthquake catalog. The forecasts generated by the GA were competitive with the benchmarks, specially in scenarios with a large amount of inland seismic activity. (More)

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Paper citation in several formats:
Aranha C., Lavinas Y., Ladeira M. and Enescu B. (2014). Is it Possible to Generate Good Earthquake Risk Models Using Genetic Algorithms?.In Proceedings of the International Conference on Evolutionary Computation Theory and Applications - Volume 1: ECTA, (IJCCI 2014) ISBN 978-989-758-052-9, pages 49-58. DOI: 10.5220/0005072600490058

@conference{ecta14,
author={Claus Aranha and Yuri Cossich Lavinas and Marcelo Ladeira and Bogdan Enescu},
title={Is it Possible to Generate Good Earthquake Risk Models Using Genetic Algorithms?},
booktitle={Proceedings of the International Conference on Evolutionary Computation Theory and Applications - Volume 1: ECTA, (IJCCI 2014)},
year={2014},
pages={49-58},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0005072600490058},
isbn={978-989-758-052-9},
}

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the International Conference on Evolutionary Computation Theory and Applications - Volume 1: ECTA, (IJCCI 2014)
TI - Is it Possible to Generate Good Earthquake Risk Models Using Genetic Algorithms?
SN - 978-989-758-052-9
AU - Aranha C.
AU - Lavinas Y.
AU - Ladeira M.
AU - Enescu B.
PY - 2014
SP - 49
EP - 58
DO - 10.5220/0005072600490058

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